Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -1600 NCCU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -18.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -14.6 (-9.6) | 141.0 (-12.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -13.5 (-8.5) | 142.0 (-13.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -14.1 (-9.1) | 144.0 (-15.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -14.5 (-9.5) | 143.9 (-14.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#186) | -14.2 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#170) | -2.16 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#176) | -4.01 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#170) | 0.426 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 32.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 37.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.