Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -155 USM +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -8.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -3.9 (-3.1) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -6.5 (-0.5) | 147.7 (+9.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -6.5 (-0.5) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -7.8 (+0.8) | 148.0 (+9.0) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#321) | 2.6 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#354) | 0.15 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.50 (#358) | 0.62 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#324) | 0.504 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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