Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -1450 UNO +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -7.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -9.3 (+6.7) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -5.1 (+10.9) | 142.9 (+13.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -5.1 (+10.9) | 144.1 (+11.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -5.4 (+10.6) | 146.8 (+9.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#130) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#270) | 0.46 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#252) | 0.75 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#200) | 0.553 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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