Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -425 UVU +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -0.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -3.4 (+7.6) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -1.1 (+9.9) | 148.8 (-5.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -1.5 (+9.5) | 153.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.4 (+10.6) | 151.6 (-8.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#107) | 10.2 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#187) | 0.32 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#138) | 1.01 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#156) | 0.548 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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