Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -455 SIU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +2 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -13.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -16.1 (-18.1) | 158.9 (+11.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HPU -13.4 (-15.4) | 158.2 (+11.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | HPU -14.5 (-16.5) | 155.3 (+14.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -14.6 (-16.6) | 155.9 (+14.1) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | HPU 94 – 81 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#65) | 0.5 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#66) | -0.96 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#82) | -1.26 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#49) | 0.408 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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