Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -290 COR +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +13 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -4.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.7 (+9.3) | 145.0 (+28.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -5.0 (+8.0) | 145.6 (+27.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -4.8 (+8.2) | 143.7 (+29.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -5.6 (+7.4) | 145.2 (+27.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 85.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 84.6 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#132) | 3.0 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#89) | 0.56 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#91) | 0.35 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#64) | 0.557 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.2% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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