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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–11 on winners spread MAE 10.4 100 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Army @ Duke — — — 56–82 —
Robert Morris @ Kentucky +5.8 138.1 76% 60–100 ✓
Niagara @ Ohio State +6.3 136.2 66% 74–84 ✓
Radford @ Virginia — — — 52–73 —
UNC Greensboro @ Northern Kentucky — — — 70–69 —
VMI @ Presbyterian — — — 72–73 —
Morehead State @ UAB +23.0 148.2 88% 71–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Middle Tennessee — — — 51–71 —
Wright State @ Marshall — — — 88–96 —
Charleston Southern @ Ole Miss — — — 68–93 —
South Carolina Upstate @ Charlotte +9.5 138.4 81% 64–76 ✓
American University @ William & Mary +5.3 141.2 70% 74–62 ✗
Pennsylvania @ George Mason +23.6 142.5 90% 66–87 ✓
Furman @ Louisville — — — 80–72 —
Wofford @ Clemson — — — 68–76 —
Holy Cross @ Boston College — — — 55–85 —
Marist @ Columbia +5.5 143.0 69% 82–67 ✗
Fordham @ Manhattan — — — 60–66 —
Canisius @ East Carolina +8.6 139.3 76% 71–83 ✓
Coppin State @ Rider +13.7 144.2 86% 69–81 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Indiana +5.5 132.4 56% 49–85 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana Tech +4.4 139.3 48% 68–70 ✓
Cornell @ Lafayette -2.4 151.3 25% 90–85 ✓
Lipscomb @ Charleston — — — 77–86 —
Western Carolina @ Wake Forest +13.5 143.5 83% 75–87 ✓
Stetson @ Georgia Tech — — — 52–77 —
Tarleton State @ Kansas +20.0 140.2 87% 62–88 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +13.0 150.9 81% 88–104 ✓
Rice @ Houston +7.8 150.9 69% 46–79 ✓
UL Monroe @ Auburn +29.8 139.4 91% 65–93 ✓
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois — — — 55–73 —
Louisiana @ Southern Miss — — — 66–45 —
Grambling @ Texas Tech +18.5 147.2 86% 62–88 ✓
Oakland @ Oklahoma State +21.2 133.4 87% 56–55 ✗
UTSA @ Oklahoma — — — 44–96 —
Green Bay @ Wisconsin +21.3 146.4 87% 34–72 ✓
High Point @ Northwestern — — — 60–95 —
Kansas City @ Iowa +21.4 147.9 88% 57–89 ✓
Oregon State @ Iowa State +11.6 151.3 77% 50–60 ✓
Texas State @ LSU +15.4 137.1 76% 59–84 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Saint Louis +24.5 145.9 89% 44–86 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Chicago State +9.9 148.7 80% 56–67 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Texas A&M +16.3 131.3 86% 80–81 ✓
Massachusetts @ Yale — — — 71–91 —
Indiana State @ Purdue +14.6 151.0 78% 67–92 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Baylor — — — 60–87 —
Sam Houston @ Nebraska — — — 65–74 —
New Hampshire @ Marquette — — — 70–75 —
Virginia Tech @ Navy +9.0 134.5 70% 77–57 ✗
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia +16.6 133.6 84% 59–74 ✓
Arkansas State @ Illinois — — — 53–92 —
Brown @ North Carolina — — — 87–94 —
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech — — — 76–83 —
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Arizona — — — 50–104 —
San Diego State @ BYU +7.4 132.8 76% 60–66 ✓
North Florida @ Grand Canyon +16.4 136.3 87% 51–65 ✓
Princeton @ South Carolina — — — 66–62 —
Seattle U @ Washington State +17.9 144.1 85% 61–79 ✓
San Diego @ Nevada — — — 75–68 —
Long Island University @ Fresno State — — — 60–84 —
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Colorado State +19.8 160.3 88% 71–91 ✓
Idaho State @ Pepperdine — — — 60–65 —
Texas Southern @ Saint Mary's +19.0 148.1 87% 58–67 ✓
SMU @ Oregon +8.7 147.8 75% 63–86 ✓
Stanford @ Santa Clara +9.2 141.1 74% 72–88 ✓
Villanova @ UCLA +9.6 145.0 75% 77–86 ✓
Coppin State @ UConn +35.2 150.2 91% 54–89 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Florida +12.5 142.9 82% 53–41 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Notre Dame — — — 52–68 —
Omaha @ Ball State — — — 69–73 —
Southern @ Tulane +9.4 138.1 78% 73–70 ✗
UIC @ Valparaiso +2.1 132.0 72% 74–70 ✗
Air Force @ Tulsa +9.0 140.2 72% 59–58 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Joseph's +13.5 141.4 84% 60–80 ✓
UCF @ Miami +9.9 141.1 78% 95–89 ✗
Harvard @ Iona — — — 87–90 —
Vermont @ Maryland +5.1 140.1 64% 57–68 ✓
Mercer @ Winthrop — — — 85–88 —
Merrimack @ Rutgers +4.7 135.9 63% 35–48 ✓
Dartmouth @ Georgetown — — — 69–60 —
St. Thomas @ St. Francis Brooklyn +1.7 141.4 47% 91–73 ✗
Lamar @ Miami (OH) — — — 75–104 —
Colgate @ NC State +14.5 142.3 83% 74–77 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Loyola Chicago — — — 77–89 —
North Carolina A&T @ Jacksonville — — — 54–63 —
Hartford @ Army — — — 79–86 —
Gardner-Webb @ Arkansas +13.1 135.9 80% 69–86 ✓
Howard @ Bradley — — — 76–64 —
Old Dominion @ James Madison — — — 53–58 —
South Alabama @ Wichita State — — — 58–64 —
UAlbany @ La Salle +9.2 146.2 75% 64–67 ✓
Saint Peter's @ St. John's +22.8 144.0 88% 70–91 ✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee State — — — 66–59 —
Evansville @ Belmont +4.1 138.6 63% 43–81 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Charleston +16.9 153.3 86% 72–79 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Jacksonville State +6.0 136.9 74% 47–70 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Dayton — — — 59–58 —
Central Michigan @ DePaul +14.7 151.0 83% 66–99 ✓
Youngstown State @ Southeast Missouri State +13.6 151.5 84% 97–79 ✗
New Mexico @ Colorado +8.0 161.5 81% 76–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.