Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -10.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -10.5 (+6.5) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -13.1 (+3.9) | 135.9 (+19.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | ARK 86 – 68 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#153) | 2.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#44) | -0.34 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#86) | -0.41 (#173) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 15.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 31.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 85.7% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 3.9% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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