Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | TULN -800 SOU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -9.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -6.7 (-9.7) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -9.4 (-12.4) | 138.1 (+4.9) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | TULN 105 – 81 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-15 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#232) | 0.6 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#104) | -0.34 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#132) | -0.46 (#197) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 30.9% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 36.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 9.7% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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