Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -3.0 (+8.0) | 140.9 (-15.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -5.1 (+5.9) | 140.1 (-15.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-1 |
| Home | 10-8 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 61.1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#214) | 8.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#31) | 1.48 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#32) | 2.15 (#20) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 12.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 10.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 83.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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