Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +1 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -8.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -6.8 (-7.8) | 140.8 (-23.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -9.0 (-10.0) | 140.2 (-23.2) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-13 |
| Home | 8-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | 2.6 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#138) | -0.34 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#135) | -0.41 (#172) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 1.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 3.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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