Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ECU -210 CAN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -7.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -6.9 (+5.1) | 140.7 (+13.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -8.6 (+3.4) | 139.3 (+14.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#251) | 1.2 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#145) | -0.34 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#146) | -0.45 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#34) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 50.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 36.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 11.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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