Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | USF -250 GASO +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +12 | 94 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -17.1 (-29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (-47.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -10.4 (-22.4) | 144.6 (-50.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -12.5 (-24.5) | 142.9 (-48.9) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-10 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#95) | -0.9 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#97) | 0.34 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#73) | 0.45 (#95) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 52.6% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.14 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 10.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.5% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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