Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -150 UIC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | VAL -5.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.8 (-4.8) | 133.3 (+10.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.1 (-6.1) | 132.0 (+12.0) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | VAL 71 – 67 UIC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | VAL 66 – 59 UIC |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VAL 67 – 50 UIC |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UIC 77 – 73 VAL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UIC 81 – 74 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#268) | 1.2 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#288) | -0.34 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#282) | -0.45 (#188) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 14.7% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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