Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -2400 ULM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +28 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -32.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -22.2 (+5.8) | 140.3 (+17.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -29.8 (-1.8) | 139.4 (+18.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#76) | -16.1 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#45) | -0.34 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#67) | -0.56 (#246) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 27.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.17 | 0.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 30.9% |
| TOV% | 8.7% | 34.2% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 5.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.5% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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