Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -360 L-MD +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -18.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -13.0 (-6.0) | 151.8 (-0.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -16.9 (-9.9) | 153.3 (-2.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -13.7 (-6.7) | 155.6 (-4.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#29) | 1.6 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#146) | 0.56 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#145) | 0.79 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#34) | 0.281 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 57.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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