Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -210 MSM +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -16.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -9.2 (+10.8) | 141.6 (-1.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -13.5 (+6.5) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#252) | -8.8 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#131) | -0.34 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#142) | -0.53 (#239) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 29.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 10.6% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 4.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.