Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -25.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | IU -2400 NIU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +36 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | IU -2.3 (+33.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -3.0 (+33.0) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -5.5 (+30.5) | 132.4 (+1.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -8.0 (+28.0) | 138.7 (-4.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#242) | 6.8 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#39) | 2.37 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#40) | 3.44 (#2) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.750 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 16.7% | 52.2% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 10.7% | 26.4% |
| ORB% | 12.5% | 14.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 28.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 84.4% | 55.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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