Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | ORE -270 SMU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +23 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -11.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -7.7 (+15.3) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -8.7 (+14.3) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#123) | 3.6 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#87) | 0.28 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#80) | 0.41 (#115) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 46.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 38.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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