Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -26.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -2800 INST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -12.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -10.6 (+14.4) | 151.8 (+7.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -14.6 (+10.4) | 151.0 (+8.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2020 | PUR 80 – 68 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#38) | 5.9 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#90) | 2.02 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#59) | 2.72 (#16) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 51.8% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 50.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 42.9% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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