Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +14 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -17.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -13.6 (+0.4) | 139.2 (-23.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -16.4 (-2.4) | 136.3 (-20.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#93) | -1.4 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#64) | -0.57 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#71) | -0.78 (#254) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 32.1% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 55.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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