Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -33.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +20 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -19.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -16.3 (+3.7) | 159.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -19.8 (+0.2) | 160.3 (+1.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#40) | -0.6 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#53) | -0.29 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#58) | -0.41 (#169) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.9% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 45.8% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 4.00 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.4% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 6.5% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 63.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 6.6% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.7% | 10.8% |
Game Analysis
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