Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | UK -2400 RMU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +40 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UK -9.8 (+30.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -4.4 (+35.6) | 140.3 (+19.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.8 (+34.2) | 138.1 (+21.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-16 |
| Home | 18-0 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#211) | 1.2 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#264) | -0.34 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#264) | -0.45 (#183) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 17.4% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 36.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 7.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 10.9% |
Game Analysis
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