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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–14 on winners spread MAE 9.7 65 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Indiana @ Minnesota	-11.6	139.8	15%	64–73	✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Michigan	+5.9	150.4	70%	74–88	✓
North Carolina Central @ James Madison	+18.2	149.7	95%	62–67	✓
Louisiana @ Lamar	+18.4	123.2	95%	55–65	✓
Drexel @ American University	+9.2	144.4	80%	73–75	✓
Cornell @ Towson	+5.3	155.4	69%	80–93	✓
New Hampshire @ Dartmouth	+11.6	144.3	85%	68–69	✓
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate	+8.1	141.1	77%	78–85	✓
Southern Illinois @ High Point	+14.9	171.8	91%	86–84	✗
Presbyterian @ Wofford	+7.8	134.4	76%	56–63	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Georgia Southern	+4.9	139.6	67%	69–77	✓
Southern Miss @ Radford	-8.4	161.2	22%	82–75	✓
Furman @ Elon	+8.7	159.8	79%	97–88	✗
Marshall @ UNC Wilmington	+11.2	152.4	85%	69–70	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Queens University	+19.5	167.8	96%	74–107	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida International	+4.2	165.6	65%	83–89	✓
Austin Peay @ Kent State	+0.3	159.4	51%	84–96	✓
Maine @ Ohio	+6.5	135.6	72%	57–79	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Hampton	+9.2	145.1	80%	71–93	✓
Navy @ Delaware State	-13.2	135.6	12%	66–59	✓
Coppin State @ West Virginia	+29.9	132.1	100%	49–91	✓
Hofstra @ Columbia	+6.5	141.8	72%	70–72	✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky	+18.3	164.2	95%	80–95	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland	+17.0	173.9	94%	92–101	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy	+2.8	194.2	60%	78–92	✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's	+0.4	160.0	52%	87–80	✗
Central Connecticut @ Seton Hall	+14.5	131.1	91%	61–77	✓
Harvard @ Massachusetts	+4.7	144.4	67%	71–78	✓
Bucknell @ Akron	+28.9	163.3	100%	77–97	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin	+8.6	155.0	78%	60–73	✓
Louisville @ Arkansas	-3.1	168.0	39%	80–89	✗
Clemson @ Alabama	+8.7	171.5	79%	84–90	✓
LSU @ Boston College	-11.7	144.7	14%	78–69	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ UL Monroe	+8.9	167.4	79%	52–66	✓
Little Rock @ Central Arkansas	+8.4	138.1	78%	47–85	✓
Richmond @ Belmont	+12.2	157.5	87%	84–76	✗
Alcorn State @ Iowa State	+37.8	158.7	100%	68–132	✓
Tennessee State @ Alabama A&M	-5.9	144.3	30%	53–80	✗
Northern Colorado @ Omaha	-6.2	165.6	29%	75–70	✓
South Dakota State @ Northern Arizona	+2.6	142.4	59%	75–62	✗
Princeton @ Monmouth	+8.5	145.0	78%	58–63	✓
Idaho State @ Kansas City	-9.7	136.2	19%	68–59	✓
UMBC @ Georgetown	+15.1	141.6	91%	81–90	✓
Ball State @ Evansville	+5.7	135.7	70%	52–64	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Illinois State	+18.1	148.1	95%	78–89	✓
Portland State @ South Dakota	-3.0	168.3	39%	77–71	✓
New Orleans @ Memphis	+7.3	146.9	75%	70–86	✓
California Baptist @ BYU	+17.8	146.5	95%	60–91	✓
North Dakota State @ Montana	+4.0	153.2	64%	81–72	✗
Oral Roberts @ Weber State	+11.3	165.1	85%	66–92	✓
Texas State @ Rice	+7.2	134.1	74%	72–77	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Montana State	+9.0	141.9	79%	74–82	✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin	+5.8	158.1	70%	73–85	✓
North Dakota @ Idaho	+12.6	143.2	87%	58–90	✓
Eastern Washington @ Denver	+7.8	173.0	76%	89–93	✓
Pacific @ Air Force	-8.4	125.8	22%	80–65	✓
SMU @ Vanderbilt	+16.1	174.0	93%	69–88	✓
Virginia @ Texas	+0.9	157.3	53%	88–69	✗
Mississippi State @ Georgia Tech	+5.4	150.3	69%	85–73	✗
NC State @ Auburn	+4.3	184.6	65%	73–83	✓
Vermont @ Oregon State	-3.0	160.2	39%	58–80	✗
Utah Tech @ Santa Clara	+23.0	143.5	98%	80–90	✓
Utah Valley @ San Diego State	+0.2	159.0	51%	66–77	✓
North Alabama @ San Francisco	+15.0	144.4	91%	65–63	✗
UCLA @ Washington	+3.7	136.9	63%	82–80	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.