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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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54–17 on winners spread MAE 7.3 71 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Boston University @ Merrimack +6.2 124.5 71% 61–64 ✓
Army @ George Washington +10.1 164.1 82% 60–75 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana Tech +14.3 149.7 90% 63–77 ✓
North Dakota @ UTSA +9.7 156.7 81% 76–80 ✓
Indiana @ Nebraska +0.3 150.3 51% 68–85 ✓
Omaha @ Northern Iowa +15.5 142.3 92% 58–78 ✓
Western Michigan @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +11.3 149.8 85% 71–77 ✓
Weber State @ Utah Tech +1.9 142.1 57% 73–71 ✗
South Dakota State @ Colorado +6.5 146.4 72% 70–81 ✓
Memphis @ Clemson +9.0 144.5 79% 87–82 ✗
Texas A&M @ Purdue +1.4 139.9 55% 70–66 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota +12.2 162.8 87% 66–89 ✓
South Carolina State @ Furman +12.3 131.0 87% 64–68 ✓
Long Island University @ Missouri +25.8 146.7 99% 61–88 ✓
Coppin State @ Penn State +39.8 147.8 100% 51–99 ✓
Ohio State @ Auburn +7.7 158.9 76% 53–91 ✓
Toledo @ Youngstown State +4.4 148.5 66% 87–93 ✓
Lamar @ Louisiana -6.6 144.7 27% 74–45 ✓
Wichita State @ DePaul +8.4 152.1 78% 72–91 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Jacksonville -0.1 150.1 50% 52–60 ✗
Maine @ Canisius -10.8 138.8 16% 84–79 ✓
Stony Brook @ Rider +9.9 134.3 82% 72–55 ✗
Xavier @ Cincinnati +11.7 142.4 86% 65–68 ✓
Murray State @ Western Kentucky +2.9 140.2 60% 76–81 ✓
Tulsa @ UCF +12.6 150.6 87% 75–88 ✓
Texas State @ Florida Atlantic +7.8 157.5 76% 80–89 ✓
Charlotte @ Georgia State +3.3 147.0 62% 77–63 ✗
Dartmouth @ UMass Lowell +12.1 158.8 86% 83–92 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Longwood +7.4 143.3 75% 77–70 ✗
App State @ High Point +3.0 135.1 61% 59–65 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Asheville +12.1 145.9 86% 61–78 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ South Carolina +23.2 159.7 98% 53–73 ✓
Queens University @ Gardner-Webb +11.0 149.7 84% 85–83 ✗
Fordham @ Bryant +2.9 162.2 60% 86–84 ✗
Georgetown @ Syracuse +1.8 154.8 57% 75–71 ✗
Wisconsin @ Butler -3.7 148.3 37% 83–74 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona -4.9 147.0 33% 57–54 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Howard -1.9 146.9 43% 83–88 ✗
UL Monroe @ UT Arlington +14.3 154.0 90% 68–77 ✓
Ball State @ Bellarmine +1.6 147.7 56% 86–82 ✗
Northwestern State @ California +8.7 147.4 79% 66–84 ✓
Seton Hall @ Rutgers +12.6 133.4 87% 63–66 ✓
NC State @ Kansas +15.2 142.0 92% 60–75 ✓
Arizona State @ Florida +6.6 154.3 73% 66–83 ✓
Southern Miss @ Ole Miss +22.9 155.2 98% 46–77 ✓
Central Michigan @ Valparaiso -3.7 149.0 37% 77–93 ✗
South Florida @ Utah State +20.0 155.4 97% 67–88 ✓
Wagner @ NJIT +0.5 109.3 52% 50–43 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +24.9 145.8 99% 57–82 ✓
Ohio @ Marshall +4.7 159.8 67% 70–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Pepperdine +5.3 145.5 69% 76–86 ✓
LSU @ SMU +2.7 160.5 60% 64–74 ✓
La Salle @ North Carolina +18.2 164.9 95% 67–93 ✓
Florida International @ Stetson -5.8 146.8 30% 81–72 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Lindenwood +1.6 142.9 56% 63–81 ✓
Bradley @ Santa Clara -3.3 150.5 38% 74–84 ✗
Tulane @ Florida State +9.4 147.8 80% 64–77 ✓
Utah Valley @ Jacksonville State +5.2 148.9 68% 66–70 ✓
Missouri State @ Washington State +15.9 149.0 93% 78–91 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Austin Peay +1.3 128.9 55% 65–60 ✗
UC Irvine @ Oregon State +3.9 131.8 64% 55–67 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ North Florida +2.7 150.4 60% 77–89 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ West Virginia +25.8 137.2 99% 61–84 ✓
Louisville @ Kentucky +14.6 159.0 91% 85–93 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Providence -1.8 121.1 43% 74–70 ✓
Tennessee @ Illinois -1.6 147.5 44% 66–64 ✓
McNeese @ Mississippi State +9.7 147.1 81% 63–66 ✓
Towson @ Duquesne -2.4 127.1 41% 47–65 ✗
Saint Francis @ Niagara +2.0 143.7 57% 66–69 ✓
Belmont @ Richmond -3.0 155.0 39% 93–86 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Georgia +13.7 151.9 89% 68–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.