Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
F&M Bank Arena · December 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SIU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money APSU +100 / SIU -120
Model Predictions
Spread Total APSU win
Actual SIU +5 125 Lost
Massey APSU -2.0 (-7.0)
Massey Totals 130.0 (-5.0)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 63%
Baseline Plus ML APSU -3.1 (-8.1) 134.9 (-9.9) 60%
Baseline ML APSU -3.0 (-8.0) 133.4 (-8.4) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML APSU -2.8 (-7.8) 132.8 (-7.8) 60%
Efficiency Plus ML APSU -0.3 (-5.3) 134.3 (-9.3) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 13, 2023 APSU 7068 SIU
Nov 13, 2021 SIU 7355 APSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APSU SIU
Overall 14-19 14-19
Conference 8-10 8-12
Home 8-5 7-7
Away 4-13 5-8
Neutral 2-1 1-4
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.1 72.2
Avg Pts Against 75.8 75.5
Massey -4.5 (#251) -2.1 (#198)
Bradley-Terry -0.16 (#188) -0.59 (#229)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.69 (#215) -0.29 (#190)
RPI 0.508 (#161) 0.495 (#185)
Shooting & Four Factors APSU SIU
FG% 38.8% 43.2%
3PT% 29.8% 31.9%
REB / G 30.5 38.4
OREB / G 9.0 11.6
AST / TO 0.93 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.4% 48.0%
TOV% 16.3% 18.9%
ORB% 24.7% 31.4%
FT Rate 19.2% 22.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.6% 51.5%
Opp TOV% 19.4% 14.5%
DRB% 65.9% 71.8%
Opp FT Rate 26.9% 21.7%

Game Analysis

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