Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +100 SIU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -2.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.3 (-5.3) | 134.3 (-9.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.8 (-7.8) | 132.8 (-7.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.0 (-8.0) | 133.4 (-8.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -3.1 (-8.1) | 134.9 (-9.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2023 | APSU 70 – 68 SIU |
| Nov 13, 2021 | SIU 73 – 55 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#251) | -2.1 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#188) | -0.59 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#215) | -0.29 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#161) | 0.495 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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