Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
| Money | SIU -800 APSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -18.8 (-20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -17.2 (-19.2) | 130.9 (+7.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -16.2 (-18.2) | 130.9 (+7.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -15.9 (-17.9) | 132.3 (+5.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -16.0 (-18.0) | 130.9 (+7.1) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | SIU 65 – 60 APSU |
| Nov 13, 2021 | SIU 73 – 55 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#69) | -6.7 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#72) | -1.13 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#67) | -1.40 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#77) | 0.416 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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