Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -500 TXST +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +9 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -8.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -6.1 (+2.9) | 149.8 (+19.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -6.7 (+2.3) | 149.9 (+19.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -6.8 (+2.2) | 150.8 (+18.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -8.8 (+0.2) | 147.5 (+21.5) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#80) | 2.7 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#120) | 1.09 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#86) | 1.14 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#72) | 0.565 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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