Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ORST -135 UCI +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -3.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -3.9 (+8.1) | 130.3 (-8.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -3.7 (+8.3) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -4.4 (+7.6) | 133.2 (-11.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -4.2 (+7.8) | 129.6 (-7.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 14-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#50) | 12.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#105) | 3.92 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#88) | 5.45 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#174) | 0.645 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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