Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LT -720 GASO +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | LT -13.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -13.5 (+0.5) | 145.2 (-5.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -10.5 (+3.5) | 145.6 (-5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -11.3 (+2.7) | 146.0 (-6.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -12.5 (+1.5) | 146.0 (-6.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | GASO 77 – 69 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#106) | -4.9 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#101) | 0.29 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#87) | -0.53 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#157) | 0.517 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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