Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNF -125 UNCG +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | UNF -3.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -2.9 (+9.1) | 148.7 (+17.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -3.3 (+8.7) | 144.9 (+21.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -3.1 (+8.9) | 144.8 (+21.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -1.3 (+10.7) | 149.6 (+16.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#136) | 2.7 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#122) | -0.23 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#157) | -0.33 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#101) | 0.506 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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