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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–2 on winners
spread MAE 11.6
7 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Campbell
@
The Citadel
|
+2.1 | 125.6 | 57% | 86–58 | ✗ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Virginia Tech
|
+10.5 | 144.5 | 83% | 67–95 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Virginia
|
+12.3 | 122.5 | 87% | 41–59 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Iowa
|
-4.5 | 161.8 | 34% | 89–80 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Arkansas State
|
+9.9 | 155.8 | 82% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Evansville
|
+2.1 | 147.4 | 58% | 75–67 | ✗ |
New Mexico State
@
Texas
|
+16.3 | 139.6 | 93% | 67–91 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.