Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | VT -1600 NCAT +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +28 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | VT -11.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -10.0 (+18.0) | 144.4 (+17.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -9.3 (+18.7) | 138.9 (+23.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -8.4 (+19.6) | 140.2 (+21.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -14.9 (+13.1) | 143.1 (+18.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 8-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#190) | -8.4 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#239) | -2.03 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#215) | -2.89 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#208) | 0.403 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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