Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -320 SDST +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -6.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -6.8 (+4.2) | 143.4 (+7.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -6.1 (+4.9) | 142.1 (+8.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -7.0 (+4.0) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -8.1 (+2.9) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#85) | 4.5 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#50) | 0.27 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#67) | 0.82 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#76) | 0.498 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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