All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Athletics-Recreation Center · December 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread CMU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money VAL -125 / CMU +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAL win
Actual VAL +16 170 Won
Massey CMU -3.8 (+19.8)
Massey Totals 148.8 (+21.2)
Bradley-Terry 40%
Weighted B-T 17%
Baseline Plus ML VAL -0.1 (+15.9) 141.7 (+28.3) 53%
Baseline ML CMU -0.1 (+16.1) 143.1 (+26.9) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML VAL -0.4 (+15.6) 143.0 (+27.0) 43%
Efficiency Plus ML CMU -2.1 (+18.1) 140.9 (+29.1) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2023 CMU 7167 VAL
Dec 12, 2020 CMU 8479 VAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAL CMU
Overall 15-19 14-17
Conference 6-14 7-11
Home 10-7 8-6
Away 3-10 6-10
Neutral 2-2 0-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.5 72.7
Avg Pts Against 75.3 74.4
Massey -4.9 (#255) 3.3 (#111)
Bradley-Terry -1.17 (#275) 0.08 (#170)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.69 (#277) 0.86 (#119)
RPI 0.439 (#272) 0.544 (#107)
Shooting & Four Factors VAL CMU
FG% 40.1% 44.2%
3PT% 29.6% 30.0%
REB / G 33.3 36.8
OREB / G 11.0 11.2
AST / TO 1.19 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.9% 51.1%
TOV% 14.1% 22.7%
ORB% 29.4% 32.4%
FT Rate 32.5% 18.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.6% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 17.9%
DRB% 72.2% 75.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.1% 29.4%

Game Analysis

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