Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Over |
| Money | CMU +175 VAL -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CMU +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | CMU -3.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -3.7 (+1.3) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -3.3 (+1.7) | 146.6 (+16.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -3.4 (+1.6) | 145.8 (+17.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CMU -3.2 (+1.8) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | VAL 93 – 77 CMU |
| Dec 7, 2023 | CMU 71 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-16 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-6 | 6-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#156) | 2.8 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#161) | -0.87 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#155) | -1.02 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#117) | 0.398 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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