All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
McGuirk Arena · December 7, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread CMU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money CMU -138 / VAL +150
Model Predictions
Spread Total CMU win
Actual CMU +4 138 Won
Massey CMU -4.9 (-0.9)
Massey Totals 137.3 (+0.7)
Bradley-Terry 75%
Weighted B-T 81%
Baseline Plus ML CMU -3.5 (+0.5) 139.4 (-1.4) 67%
Baseline ML CMU -3.8 (+0.2) 138.5 (-0.5) 64%
Baseline Tuned ML CMU -3.6 (+0.4) 138.6 (-0.6) 63%
Efficiency Plus ML CMU -2.5 (+1.5) 139.6 (-1.6) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2024 VAL 9377 CMU
Dec 12, 2020 CMU 8479 VAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CMU VAL
Overall 18-14 7-25
Conference 12-6 3-17
Home 10-3 6-11
Away 7-9 1-13
Neutral 1-2 0-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.7 66.5
Avg Pts Against 70.2 76.0
Massey -8.6 (#317) -7.7 (#310)
Bradley-Terry -1.21 (#278) -1.01 (#266)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.19 (#297) -2.06 (#291)
RPI 0.467 (#233) 0.434 (#282)
Shooting & Four Factors CMU VAL
FG% 42.8% 38.4%
3PT% 31.2% 29.9%
REB / G 30.9 36.9
OREB / G 10.4 10.7
AST / TO 0.67 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 43.1%
TOV% 22.3% 14.5%
ORB% 29.9% 26.0%
FT Rate 19.1% 19.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.5% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 17.5%
DRB% 65.9% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 25.1% 17.6%

Game Analysis

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