Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +27 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -26.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -25.3 (+1.7) | 146.1 (+2.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -24.5 (+2.5) | 145.2 (+3.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -22.7 (+4.3) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -22.1 (+4.9) | 145.9 (+3.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 18-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#35) | -8.4 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#34) | -1.33 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#33) | -2.07 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#75) | 0.438 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 40.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 40.7% |
Game Analysis
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