Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -270 GCU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -12.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -12.2 (-7.2) | 150.2 (-9.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -14.2 (-9.2) | 148.1 (-7.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -12.8 (-7.8) | 147.2 (-6.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -10.9 (-5.9) | 145.8 (-4.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#24) | 1.7 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#27) | 1.25 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#22) | 1.36 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#43) | 0.580 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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