Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -7500 LAS +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +26 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -16.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -13.3 (+12.7) | 160.0 (+0.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -13.1 (+12.9) | 158.6 (+1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -13.4 (+12.6) | 157.1 (+2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -15.9 (+10.1) | 160.5 (-0.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#36) | 0.9 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#61) | 0.16 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#62) | -0.19 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#27) | 0.528 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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