Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
Dean E. Smith Center · December 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -20.5 Home covered
O/U 162.5 Under
Money UNC -7500 / LAS +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +26 160 Won
Massey UNC -16.5 (+9.5)
Massey Totals 166.3 (-6.3)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -13.3 (+12.7) 160.0 (+0.0) 85%
Baseline ML UNC -13.1 (+12.9) 158.6 (+1.4) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -13.4 (+12.6) 157.1 (+2.9) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -15.9 (+10.1) 160.5 (-0.5) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC LAS
Overall 23-14 14-19
Conference 13-7 5-13
Home 12-3 10-5
Away 6-6 2-10
Neutral 5-5 2-4
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.7 70.9
Avg Pts Against 74.7 75.5
Massey 12.9 (#36) 0.9 (#149)
Bradley-Terry 1.61 (#61) 0.16 (#163)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.42 (#62) -0.19 (#183)
RPI 0.623 (#27) 0.528 (#123)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC LAS
FG% 46.1% 42.9%
3PT% 33.0% 32.9%
REB / G 38.7 39.0
OREB / G 10.1 12.6
AST / TO 1.27 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 48.4%
TOV% 14.2% 15.5%
ORB% 27.7% 33.0%
FT Rate 30.8% 24.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.7% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 15.3% 16.3%
DRB% 73.0% 74.4%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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