Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +125 ETSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +8 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -0.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-38.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -2.0 (+6.0) | 145.7 (-33.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -2.2 (+5.8) | 147.7 (-35.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -2.8 (+5.2) | 145.9 (-33.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.0 (+8.0) | 143.5 (-31.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#205) | 1.9 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#156) | -0.25 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#114) | -0.04 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#102) | 0.490 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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