Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | YSU -125 TOL +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +6 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -3.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -2.3 (+3.7) | 145.5 (+34.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -2.7 (+3.3) | 144.7 (+35.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -2.9 (+3.1) | 145.0 (+35.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -3.3 (+2.7) | 149.0 (+31.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2025 | TOL 92 – 75 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#224) | -2.3 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#246) | 0.55 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#244) | 0.24 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#307) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 24.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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