Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -120 YSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +17 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -2.7 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -0.2 (+16.8) | 151.4 (+15.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TOL -0.0 (+17.0) | 151.1 (+15.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TOL -0.2 (+16.8) | 150.3 (+16.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -0.5 (+16.5) | 152.6 (+14.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | YSU 93 – 87 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#239) | 5.6 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#187) | 0.94 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#165) | 1.48 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#185) | 0.659 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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