Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | USU -1800 USF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | USU -20.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -19.7 (+1.3) | 150.4 (+4.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -18.6 (+2.4) | 150.0 (+5.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -17.4 (+3.6) | 149.4 (+5.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -16.1 (+4.9) | 149.6 (+5.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2025 | USF 74 – 61 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#34) | -2.9 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#4) | 0.67 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.84 (#4) | 0.13 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#15) | 0.504 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 42.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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