Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | USF -135 USU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +13 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USF -2.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.1 (-38.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.7 (+10.3) | 157.8 (-22.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USF -1.8 (+11.2) | 157.6 (-22.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USF -1.7 (+11.3) | 156.4 (-21.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.6 (+12.4) | 157.4 (-22.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | USU 88 – 67 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#56) | 12.8 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#147) | 3.64 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#117) | 5.59 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#125) | 0.674 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 51.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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