I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Yuengling Center · December 5, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread USF -2.5 Home covered
O/U 162.5 Under
Money USF -135 / USU +114
Model Predictions
Spread Total USF win
Actual USF +13 135 Won
Massey USF -2.0 (+11.0)
Massey Totals 173.1 (-38.1)
Bradley-Terry 12%
Weighted B-T 4%
Baseline Plus ML USF -2.7 (+10.3) 157.8 (-22.8) 56%
Model 4 ML USF -1.8 (+11.2) 157.6 (-22.6) 54%
Model 3 ML USF -1.7 (+11.3) 156.4 (-21.4) 52%
Baseline ML USF -0.6 (+12.4) 157.4 (-22.4) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2024 USU 8867 USF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USF USU
Overall 25-9 29-7
Conference 15-3 15-5
Home 13-2 14-1
Away 9-3 7-5
Neutral 3-4 8-1
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 86.8 81.4
Avg Pts Against 76.5 71.2
Massey 9.9 (#56) 12.8 (#36)
Bradley-Terry 0.55 (#147) 3.64 (#11)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.08 (#117) 5.59 (#10)
RPI 0.533 (#125) 0.674 (#11)
Shooting & Four Factors USF USU
FG% 43.9% 51.6%
3PT% 31.0% 36.2%
REB / G 40.9 36.7
OREB / G 15.6 10.8
AST / TO 1.45 1.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.7% 58.3%
TOV% 14.9% 17.5%
ORB% 37.5% 33.9%
FT Rate 32.9% 30.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 21.9% 22.1%
DRB% 67.6% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 32.0% 25.7%

Game Analysis

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