Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UML -800 DART +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +9 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | UML -10.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -8.7 (+0.3) | 154.0 (+21.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -8.8 (+0.2) | 152.1 (+22.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -9.2 (-0.2) | 150.3 (+24.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -11.3 (-2.3) | 155.4 (+19.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2023 | UML 81 – 48 DART |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#200) | -8.0 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#131) | -0.90 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#130) | -1.48 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.451 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.5% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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