You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–17 on winners spread MAE 10.8 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ West Virginia -7.2 144.7 26% 53–56 ✗
North Florida @ Florida +23.6 131.4 98% 55–85 ✓
Indiana @ Wisconsin +8.3 131.7 78% 59–64 ✓
Alabama A&M @ North Alabama +11.8 130.4 86% 45–56 ✓
Samford @ Alabama State -1.4 161.9 45% 74–64 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina +1.7 149.4 56% 69–74 ✓
Wofford @ Gardner-Webb +0.1 137.1 50% 78–70 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Boston University +6.3 134.4 72% 62–72 ✓
Saint Francis @ American University -11.4 152.8 15% 73–83 ✗
Lafayette @ Delaware +15.2 145.7 92% 58–68 ✓
Wagner @ Penn State -5.5 122.0 31% 54–74 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ St. Bonaventure +10.9 130.8 84% 71–84 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Saint Joseph's +6.4 148.2 72% 71–78 ✓
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -5.2 150.7 32% 62–79 ✗
Lipscomb @ Miami +6.4 159.8 72% 59–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ VCU +9.3 117.1 80% 52–66 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Dartmouth +8.8 143.5 79% 72–69 ✗
Holy Cross @ Fairfield +23.1 148.1 98% 59–74 ✓
Marist @ Binghamton +3.0 138.5 61% 64–51 ✗
Canisius @ Northern Kentucky +4.7 138.8 67% 62–75 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Peter's +12.7 130.2 88% 71–60 ✗
Niagara @ Eastern Michigan -1.9 139.4 43% 58–60 ✗
Central Michigan @ Youngstown State +20.5 147.8 97% 77–84 ✓
Missouri State @ Little Rock -8.9 149.1 21% 81–55 ✓
Evansville @ Southeast Missouri State +3.9 143.7 64% 73–75 ✓
New Hampshire @ Bryant -6.2 137.2 29% 59–76 ✗
Arkansas State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1.4 143.6 45% 84–73 ✓
Buffalo @ Western Kentucky -0.6 159.2 48% 77–67 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ SIU Edwardsville +6.4 144.2 72% 59–80 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Colorado +9.8 158.4 81% 57–60 ✓
Utah @ TCU -4.4 130.0 35% 62–76 ✗
McNeese @ Louisiana +7.1 137.7 74% 68–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +9.3 160.2 80% 69–75 ✓
Dayton @ SMU +0.6 139.0 52% 69–77 ✓
UMBC @ Georgetown -0.8 152.7 47% 71–100 ✗
Michigan State @ Minnesota -0.5 127.9 48% 75–67 ✓
Towson @ Ohio State +8.9 140.2 79% 74–85 ✓
Utah State @ BYU +9.3 144.1 80% 71–82 ✓
Air Force @ Montana -1.2 123.5 46% 48–66 ✗
Marquette @ Kansas State +6.7 143.1 73% 64–63 ✗
South Dakota State @ Idaho -21.0 175.3 3% 84–98 ✗
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -0.3 149.1 49% 56–60 ✗
Cornell @ Virginia Tech +11.9 148.2 86% 60–93 ✓
Drake @ Omaha -20.2 136.2 3% 78–70 ✓
Wyoming @ Arizona +12.4 148.7 87% 65–94 ✓
Weber State @ Washington State +8.7 133.0 78% 60–94 ✓
Seattle U @ UNLV -1.5 137.5 45% 56–76 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ San Diego State +5.4 124.0 69% 56–66 ✓
Idaho State @ California +17.3 126.1 94% 46–72 ✓
Fresno State @ San Francisco +8.9 122.7 79% 63–71 ✓
Texas @ Seton Hall +2.3 132.7 58% 60–64 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ NC State +16.6 150.8 93% 48–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.