And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–9 on winners spread MAE 10.1 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Southern @ Kentucky +23.9 145.9 99% 64–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ Tennessee +3.3 145.2 62% 57–52 ✗
Bucknell @ Princeton +18.3 162.8 95% 69–82 ✓
Furman @ Winthrop +0.7 172.9 53% 80–85 ✓
Old Dominion @ William & Mary -2.5 120.9 41% 74–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina +9.3 140.5 80% 71–82 ✓
Massachusetts @ Northeastern +3.4 143.3 62% 76–82 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ La Salle +7.7 139.7 76% 55–81 ✓
Navy @ George Mason -0.4 128.2 49% 65–71 ✗
Brown @ Merrimack +0.3 113.2 51% 76–56 ✗
UAlbany @ Yale +16.7 133.6 94% 52–71 ✓
Jacksonville @ Georgia +2.6 119.2 59% 58–69 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida A&M -1.3 139.4 45% 69–55 ✓
Oakland @ Bowling Green -7.4 144.4 25% 72–73 ✗
Bradley @ Toledo +10.8 140.7 84% 65–67 ✓
Michigan @ Nebraska -2.4 142.6 42% 102–67 ✓
UTEP @ Kansas +22.8 150.5 98% 52–78 ✓
South Dakota @ Northern Colorado +14.3 142.6 90% 69–74 ✓
Charleston @ Tulane +3.0 157.1 61% 86–72 ✗
Temple @ Vanderbilt +11.0 128.4 84% 72–68 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Missouri +15.7 118.4 92% 44–72 ✓
Belmont @ Saint Louis +1.9 157.3 57% 64–59 ✗
Duquesne @ DePaul +16.9 152.4 94% 67–87 ✓
Charlotte @ Arkansas +16.8 155.8 94% 66–86 ✓
Butler @ Oklahoma +14.8 122.7 91% 66–62 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Tulsa +6.6 142.0 73% 60–55 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Santa Clara +21.4 140.6 97% 77–88 ✓
North Dakota State @ Montana State +14.7 139.8 91% 49–68 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ USC +22.8 156.5 98% 68–80 ✓
Boise State @ Cal State Northridge -6.2 116.6 29% 74–48 ✓
North Dakota @ California Baptist +17.0 143.6 94% 71–89 ✓
Villanova @ Syracuse -15.1 158.0 9% 67–53 ✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Asheville -8.8 126.5 21% 78–73 ✓
Coppin State @ George Washington +5.0 136.5 68% 62–75 ✓
Ball State @ Xavier +17.9 150.4 95% 50–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.