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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–6 on winners
spread MAE 9.0
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Columbia
@
Colgate
|
+21.0 | 154.3 | 97% | 61–89 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+8.3 | 132.3 | 78% | 74–69 | ✗ |
North Carolina Central
@
The Citadel
|
+14.4 | 153.7 | 90% | 67–80 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
Morehead State
|
+13.8 | 119.1 | 89% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Kent State
|
+1.8 | 132.3 | 57% | 73–58 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Liberty
|
+19.1 | 117.3 | 96% | 60–96 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Iowa
|
+13.0 | 159.8 | 88% | 87–83 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Houston
|
+28.0 | 132.4 | 99% | 45–77 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
New Mexico
|
+2.6 | 164.7 | 59% | 78–76 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Pepperdine
|
-0.4 | 137.0 | 49% | 69–82 | ✗ |
Sacred Heart
@
Rhode Island
|
+17.2 | 137.5 | 94% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Providence
|
+9.0 | 126.4 | 79% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
James Madison
|
-2.2 | 120.4 | 42% | 49–52 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.