Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | CCU -145 MER +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -8.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -5.8 (-10.8) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -6.8 (-11.8) | 138.0 (+5.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -7.5 (-12.5) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -6.9 (-11.9) | 138.4 (+4.6) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#140) | -2.3 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#139) | 0.06 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#155) | -0.17 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#124) | 0.511 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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